Exercise Caution in Chasing Highs for SHFE Tin, Monitor Developments in Myanmar [Institutional Commentary]

On Monday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2505 contract fluctuated downward during the day and surged at night, while LME tin hit a new yearly high. Spot market: It was heard that small brands were at a discount of 500-200 yuan/mt for April, Yun-branded tin was at a discount of 200 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt for April, and Yunxi tin was at a premium of 100-300 yuan/mt for April. SMM: As of last Friday, social inventory stood at 11,482 mt, up 934 mt WoW. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 57.37%, down 4.13% WoW. Overall, Wa State plans to hold a meeting with investors at the Manxiang mine on April 1 to discuss the resumption of mining activities in the area. However, the earthquake in Myanmar last Friday has brought significant uncertainty to the resumption discussions, coupled with the unresolved disruptions in tin ore production in the DRC. The tightening supply side is expected to strongly support tin prices. However, with Trump's tariffs approaching, macro risks have increased, and risk-averse sentiment is strong, causing tin prices to show slight weakness after the surge. Caution is advised in chasing highs in the short term, with close attention to developments in Myanmar.